Six months ago, I was doing the same research and asking the same questions. I ended up going with bzr, mostly because I like the UI. Also, from lurking on the mailing list and seeing a core group of active developers with a common vision, the support of Ubuntu, and a lot of attention paid to UI/usability issues, and just generally doing the right thing, I feel confident that it will mature nicely. Plus I need both Linux and Windows support, and being written in Python I'm willing to believe that portability will be taken seriously even if right now it isn't quite. I don't think it is really ready for prime time yet, but it is self-hosting, and as a solo developer I've been satisfied with it.
The web site is weak, but interestingly enough this web page has gotten the attention of the key contributors, so perhaps that will improve soon. :-) The tutorials are a good enough start though, and the built-in help has been sufficient.